qualifications
Date: Sun, 24 Jun 2007 09:55:21 -0600
Subject: update
Weather Forecasting
What makes one qualified to develop marine weather forecasts for cruisers?
A good internet connection, High Frequency Radio & a love of the weather. It
doesn't hurt to be a sailor and to have spent 2 years cruising primarily the
Sea of Cortez visiting approximately 70 different anchorages in the Sea. And
when I say 2 years, I mean we were on the boat full time the entire period
and spent both hurricane seasons in the Bahia de Los Angeles area along with
about 25 other boats.
Anyway the purpose of this is to give you an idea what I use to develop a
forecast and how I go about validating the accuracy of it. Each morning it
takes about 2 hours of Internet work to put together a forecast of the west
coast of Mexico including the Sea of Cortez. There is an additional hour or
spent trying to validate, or grade, the forecasts using actual observations
from; boats (those that check in on the radio nets & online reports of ships
that participate in the Voluntary Observing Ship project, ground reporting
stations and satellite wind observations.
Since everyone is used to the format, I follow the forecast areas used by
Don of Summer Passage Radio. Additionally, unless he is holding out a
website or two, I use the same sources to put together my forecast as he
does. There are about 30 websites I use for the forecasts & 14 I use for the
online portion of the validation process in addition to listening to Amigo &
Southbound Nets daily for onsite reports.
For the Short Term Forecast (0 – 2 days) these sources include;
NOAA High Seas Forecasts
Servicio Meteorológico National (Mexican Weather Service)
Various Satellite views
WeatherFax products (yup, they're still useful!)
Tropical weather discussions
COAMPS Model
National Center for Atmospheric Research RUC Model
GFS Model
NAMS Model
MM5 Model
Long Term Forecast (3 – 7 days) sources include:
WW3 Model
GFS Model
NOGAPS Model
Nightime Convection Reports source:
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional satellite loop
Tropical Weather sources include:
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
National Hurricane Service
Anyway, it is a labor of love and is my attempt to provide information to
cruisers that I appreciated receiving when I was cruising. You can reach me
via email at ki4goi (at) winlink (dot) org or on VHF channel 22 when you
come through Santiago, Colima, Mexico